Stratfor 21-Nov-13
Stratfor Eurasia Analyst Eugene Chausovsky examines the intensifying competition between Russia and the European Union over the Baltic states.
At a time when Ukraine is getting a lot of attention in the competition between the EU and Russia, the Baltic states are also seeing some notable moves in this regard. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Latvian counterpart on Nov. 21, and on the same day the Estonian Defense Forces claimed that Russian fighter aircraft had violated Estonia's airspace. One day earlier, the European Commission authorized nearly 450 million euros in aid to Lithuania for the construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal. It is likely that the Baltic states will see an intensification of the competition between Russia and the West in the coming year.
Grabbing the headlines in recent weeks has been the upcoming Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, which will be held on Nov. 28 and 29. The Eastern Partnership is the EU's flagship program for bringing former Soviet countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus politically and economically closer to the bloc, with Ukraine serving as the largest and most important country in this regard. Ukraine was set to sign key agreements with the EU at the summit, but the last minute rejection of releasing opposition leader Yulia Timoshenko could serve as a major setback in the EU's battle for influence over the country with Russia.
Another area that is subject to this same competition, albeit on a more nuanced level, is the Baltic region. Unlike Ukraine, the Baltic states have been members of the EU and NATO since the mid-2000s. But Russia does have significant ties into these countries, and Moscow has been looking to expand its influence in the region.
On the economic front, Russia lags behind the EU in the Baltic states. Estonia is a member of the eurozone, Latvia has officially been accepted to join the euro in 2014, and Lithuania will likely be admitted in 2015. However, Russia is an important trade partner for these countries, and the economic crisis in the EU has opened the door for Russia to increase economic penetration into the region. Indeed, economic matters were high on the agenda during the foreign ministerial meeting between Latvia and Russia.
Energy is also an area that has been a challenge for Russia. While the Baltic states are highly reliant on Russia for their oil and natural gas supplies, these countries have been seeking to decrease their dependence on Moscow. Lithuania has been especially active in this regard, with plans to construct a LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal in 2014. The announcement that the European Commission will help finance this project is a boon to Lithuania and the other Baltic states, and it is likely that the EU will help the Baltics improve their position over Russia on energy matters in the coming years.
However, it is in security matters that Russia is in a strong position in the Baltic region. Despite their membership in NATO, the Baltic states have been very concerned about the commitment of the military bloc to their security due to their small size and proximity to Russia. Russia has sought to further undermine their confidence by conducting large-scale military exercises near the region via the Zapad drills, and violation of Baltic and Nordic countries by Russian aircraft has become increasingly common.
While recent drills held by NATO in the Baltic region, known as Steadfast Jazz, have served as a response to Russia assertiveness, the Baltic states are still looking for a demonstration of a more concrete and permanent commitment on the part of the bloc. Until that comes, the Baltics will have to factor in Russia, not only in their security plans, but also in their economic and political decision-making.
Stratfor Eurasia Analyst Eugene Chausovsky examines the intensifying competition between Russia and the European Union over the Baltic states.
At a time when Ukraine is getting a lot of attention in the competition between the EU and Russia, the Baltic states are also seeing some notable moves in this regard. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Latvian counterpart on Nov. 21, and on the same day the Estonian Defense Forces claimed that Russian fighter aircraft had violated Estonia's airspace. One day earlier, the European Commission authorized nearly 450 million euros in aid to Lithuania for the construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal. It is likely that the Baltic states will see an intensification of the competition between Russia and the West in the coming year.
Grabbing the headlines in recent weeks has been the upcoming Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, which will be held on Nov. 28 and 29. The Eastern Partnership is the EU's flagship program for bringing former Soviet countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus politically and economically closer to the bloc, with Ukraine serving as the largest and most important country in this regard. Ukraine was set to sign key agreements with the EU at the summit, but the last minute rejection of releasing opposition leader Yulia Timoshenko could serve as a major setback in the EU's battle for influence over the country with Russia.
Another area that is subject to this same competition, albeit on a more nuanced level, is the Baltic region. Unlike Ukraine, the Baltic states have been members of the EU and NATO since the mid-2000s. But Russia does have significant ties into these countries, and Moscow has been looking to expand its influence in the region.
On the economic front, Russia lags behind the EU in the Baltic states. Estonia is a member of the eurozone, Latvia has officially been accepted to join the euro in 2014, and Lithuania will likely be admitted in 2015. However, Russia is an important trade partner for these countries, and the economic crisis in the EU has opened the door for Russia to increase economic penetration into the region. Indeed, economic matters were high on the agenda during the foreign ministerial meeting between Latvia and Russia.
Energy is also an area that has been a challenge for Russia. While the Baltic states are highly reliant on Russia for their oil and natural gas supplies, these countries have been seeking to decrease their dependence on Moscow. Lithuania has been especially active in this regard, with plans to construct a LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal in 2014. The announcement that the European Commission will help finance this project is a boon to Lithuania and the other Baltic states, and it is likely that the EU will help the Baltics improve their position over Russia on energy matters in the coming years.
However, it is in security matters that Russia is in a strong position in the Baltic region. Despite their membership in NATO, the Baltic states have been very concerned about the commitment of the military bloc to their security due to their small size and proximity to Russia. Russia has sought to further undermine their confidence by conducting large-scale military exercises near the region via the Zapad drills, and violation of Baltic and Nordic countries by Russian aircraft has become increasingly common.
While recent drills held by NATO in the Baltic region, known as Steadfast Jazz, have served as a response to Russia assertiveness, the Baltic states are still looking for a demonstration of a more concrete and permanent commitment on the part of the bloc. Until that comes, the Baltics will have to factor in Russia, not only in their security plans, but also in their economic and political decision-making.
No comments:
Post a Comment