The European Parliament voted this week to lift import
duties on Moldovan wine, responding to the "unjustified and
arbitrary pressures exerted by Russia", which banned the
product as of 1 January next year. But Russia has not had its
last word yet, analysts warn, urging the European Union to
speed up its association process with Chisinau to avoid a
Ukraine-like scenario.
The Parliament vote on Tuesday (10 December) was aimed
at speeding up the EU and Moldova's negotiations for a free
trade agreement, which would have otherwise only entered
into force at the beginning of 2015.
The move comes two months after Russia banned wine
exports from Moldova citing “food safety concerns”, and
just a few weeks after Moldova initialed a key association
agreement with the EU in Vilnius, which is yet to be
formally signed.
The Parliament vote was generous, “especially coming from
wine-producing countries in the EU” like France and Italy,
said Dirk Schuebel, the former EU ambassador to Moldova.
However, its impact might turn out to be more symbolic than
a real economic game changer.
Speaking at a panel debate organised by the European Policy
Centre (EPC) in Brussels, Kamil Całus, an analyst
specialised on Moldova at the Warsaw-based Centre for
Eastern Studies, said wine exports to Russia actually
represent “only about 2-3% of the general amount of goods
exported” by Moldova.
For Całus, it is clear that Russia was “aware that the ban was
not able to hit the Moldovan economy”.
Moreover, Moldova does not have the capacity to use all its
EU quotas. In 2013, the EU quota was set to 240,000
hectoliters, of which Moldova was only able to use 65-80%
up until December 2013, according to the official numbers
from the Moldovan Ministry of Economy.
“It’s obvious that the full abolition of wine trade restrictions
would render no effect on the economy in this year and
probably just a minimal effect, if any, in 2014,” Kamil Całus
told EurActiv.
A much more serious blow to the Moldovan economy,
experts say, would come from a Russian ban on products
such as fruits or vegetables, as well as restrictions on
Moldovan migrant workers.
Seasonal workers abroad contributed €2 billion to the
Moldovan economy this year. And 60% of that amount came
from migrants working in Russia.
As Całus put it, Moscow was until now merely placing its
pieces on the Moldovan chess board rather than playing the
game, as in the run-up to the Vilnius Summit, all eyes were
on Ukraine.
EU 'not yet an irreversible choice' for Moldova
Even though Chisinau is seen as the champion of the EU's
Eastern association process for now, things could heat up in
the course of 2014.
The country is set to hold general elections in November
2014, with a Communist opposition which has a much
different, pro-Russian plan for the country. A victory would
most probably mean the end of the EU integration process
for Moldova, warned many of the panelists at the EPC event.
If the EU fails to speed up the association process with
Chisinau in 2014, the country could easily fall into
Moscow’s orbit, they warned.
Ambassador Całus called for the Association Agreement
initialed in Vilnius to be signed next September, “thus
allowing the current parliament to ratify it”. Signing the AA
before the election would make the EU choice “a point of no
return” for Moldova, the ambassador said. However, he
admitted the signature would be conditional on Chisinau
delivering on the promised reforms.
Getting closer to the signature will also most probably
trigger stronger pressure from Moscow, Całus said. “Until
now the Kremlin was not trying hard to prevent the initialing
of the agreement with the EU because it was concentrated on
Ukraine, but not only," he said.
"Russian decision-makers are fully aware that there is time
between the initialing and the signing. They probably
assume that it would be better to act in 2014 as it is an
election year. In Moldova, it’s easier to change the
government than to make this government change its mind
on EU integration."
Moscow can apply several leverages on Moldova, the
panelists explained - ranging from food products ban and
migrant workers restrictions to the sensitive issue of
Transnistria and the internal political structure.
Travelling freely
If progress on the Association Agreement cannot be done, an
option for the EU to make itself more attractive to Moldovan
citizens is liberalising the visa regime and allowing
Moldovans to travel freely in the EU for touristic purposes,
ambassador Całus stressed.
The Commission issued a positive report on the matter in
November, stating that Chisinau had fulfilled all the
requirements.
Dirk Schuebel, who now works in the European
Commission's Eastern Partnership division, said EU officials
were “impressed” by Moldova’s progress, “and believe me
[the Commission] is not easy to please,” he added jokingly.
However, “the ball is in the court of MEPs and member
states,” the Moldovan ambassador reminded, adding that he
hoped for a swift vote before the next EU election and in
time before the Moldovan ones.
duties on Moldovan wine, responding to the "unjustified and
arbitrary pressures exerted by Russia", which banned the
product as of 1 January next year. But Russia has not had its
last word yet, analysts warn, urging the European Union to
speed up its association process with Chisinau to avoid a
Ukraine-like scenario.
The Parliament vote on Tuesday (10 December) was aimed
at speeding up the EU and Moldova's negotiations for a free
trade agreement, which would have otherwise only entered
into force at the beginning of 2015.
The move comes two months after Russia banned wine
exports from Moldova citing “food safety concerns”, and
just a few weeks after Moldova initialed a key association
agreement with the EU in Vilnius, which is yet to be
formally signed.
The Parliament vote was generous, “especially coming from
wine-producing countries in the EU” like France and Italy,
said Dirk Schuebel, the former EU ambassador to Moldova.
However, its impact might turn out to be more symbolic than
a real economic game changer.
Speaking at a panel debate organised by the European Policy
Centre (EPC) in Brussels, Kamil Całus, an analyst
specialised on Moldova at the Warsaw-based Centre for
Eastern Studies, said wine exports to Russia actually
represent “only about 2-3% of the general amount of goods
exported” by Moldova.
For Całus, it is clear that Russia was “aware that the ban was
not able to hit the Moldovan economy”.
Moreover, Moldova does not have the capacity to use all its
EU quotas. In 2013, the EU quota was set to 240,000
hectoliters, of which Moldova was only able to use 65-80%
up until December 2013, according to the official numbers
from the Moldovan Ministry of Economy.
“It’s obvious that the full abolition of wine trade restrictions
would render no effect on the economy in this year and
probably just a minimal effect, if any, in 2014,” Kamil Całus
told EurActiv.
A much more serious blow to the Moldovan economy,
experts say, would come from a Russian ban on products
such as fruits or vegetables, as well as restrictions on
Moldovan migrant workers.
Seasonal workers abroad contributed €2 billion to the
Moldovan economy this year. And 60% of that amount came
from migrants working in Russia.
As Całus put it, Moscow was until now merely placing its
pieces on the Moldovan chess board rather than playing the
game, as in the run-up to the Vilnius Summit, all eyes were
on Ukraine.
EU 'not yet an irreversible choice' for Moldova
Even though Chisinau is seen as the champion of the EU's
Eastern association process for now, things could heat up in
the course of 2014.
The country is set to hold general elections in November
2014, with a Communist opposition which has a much
different, pro-Russian plan for the country. A victory would
most probably mean the end of the EU integration process
for Moldova, warned many of the panelists at the EPC event.
If the EU fails to speed up the association process with
Chisinau in 2014, the country could easily fall into
Moscow’s orbit, they warned.
Ambassador Całus called for the Association Agreement
initialed in Vilnius to be signed next September, “thus
allowing the current parliament to ratify it”. Signing the AA
before the election would make the EU choice “a point of no
return” for Moldova, the ambassador said. However, he
admitted the signature would be conditional on Chisinau
delivering on the promised reforms.
Getting closer to the signature will also most probably
trigger stronger pressure from Moscow, Całus said. “Until
now the Kremlin was not trying hard to prevent the initialing
of the agreement with the EU because it was concentrated on
Ukraine, but not only," he said.
"Russian decision-makers are fully aware that there is time
between the initialing and the signing. They probably
assume that it would be better to act in 2014 as it is an
election year. In Moldova, it’s easier to change the
government than to make this government change its mind
on EU integration."
Moscow can apply several leverages on Moldova, the
panelists explained - ranging from food products ban and
migrant workers restrictions to the sensitive issue of
Transnistria and the internal political structure.
Travelling freely
If progress on the Association Agreement cannot be done, an
option for the EU to make itself more attractive to Moldovan
citizens is liberalising the visa regime and allowing
Moldovans to travel freely in the EU for touristic purposes,
ambassador Całus stressed.
The Commission issued a positive report on the matter in
November, stating that Chisinau had fulfilled all the
requirements.
Dirk Schuebel, who now works in the European
Commission's Eastern Partnership division, said EU officials
were “impressed” by Moldova’s progress, “and believe me
[the Commission] is not easy to please,” he added jokingly.
However, “the ball is in the court of MEPs and member
states,” the Moldovan ambassador reminded, adding that he
hoped for a swift vote before the next EU election and in
time before the Moldovan ones.
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