Saturday 30 November 2013

The Geneva Accord Leaves Israel out on a Limb Iran get everything and gives nothing?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZX9rJXSwVw&feature=youtu.be
November 28, 2013 - Audio, 11 minutes

(Links at bottom of page to download free viewers.)
"What was concluded in Geneva last night is not a historic agreement, it's a historic mistake. It's not made the world a safer place. Like the agreement with North Korea in 2005, this agreement has made the world a much more dangerous place. I know that many share the concern of Israel, especially in the region and there is a reason for this. For years the international community has demanded that Iran cease all uranium enrichment. Now, for the first time, the international community has formally consented that Iran continue its enrichment of uranium. 

This is in direct contravention of UN security resolutions. Iran is taking only cosmetic steps which it could reverse easily within a few weeks, and in return, sanctions that took years to put in place are going to be eased. Iran is going to receive billions of dollars worth of sanctions release. So the pressures on Iran are being lifted and eased, and with this pressure this first step could very well be the last step. Without continued pressure, what incentive does the Iranian regime have to take serious steps that actually dismantle its nuclear weapons capability? Why would it dismantle the centrifuges and plutonium rectors? None of this is covered in the agreement. 

They are left in tact. So Israel is not bound by this agreement. We cannot and will not allow a regime which calls for the destruction of Israel, to obtain the means to achieve this goal. We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapons capability. Israel has many friends and allies but when they are mistaken, it is my obligation to speak out clearly and openly and say so. It is my solemn responsibility to protect and defend the one and only Jewish state..."

This was the reaction of Benjamin Netenyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, after world powers agreed to what has become known as the "Geneva Accord" signed at 4am last Sunday 24th November. The agreement permits Iran to continue to develop its nuclear capabilities for the first time and was made with the so called "P5+1":  the United States, Great Britain, France, China and Russia along with Germany. 
Why were there Sanctions against Iran?
Much of the media and politicians in the western world have heralded the deal as a positive step towards world peace. However Israel responded disparagingly. What the western media seems to have failed to report on is why? Why are Israel so enraged? Why were there sanctions against Iran in the first place?

After the Islamic revolution in Iran of 1979 that overthrew the Shah of Iran, the new Islamic republic, led by Shite Muslim Clerics, saw Israel as an illegitimate state with no right to exist - certainly not amongst Muslim nations. Iran was also very antagonistic at that time against the west - with the new leader, Khomeini, declaring that the U.S. was the "Great Satan." During the revolution, the Islamic revolutionists famously stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans for 444 days. This led to the U.S. halting diplomatic relations with Iran.

Throughout the 1990's both the U.S. and Israel accused Iran of sponsoring various terrorist attacks against them. Although hostile toward one another, Israel and Iran continued relatively peacefully. This was mainly due to them having a common enemy - Iraq. However, since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iran has turned its spotlight on Israel.

In 2005, President Ahmadinejad was elected in Iran. Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Holocaust, and was even quoted as saying he believed Israel should be "wiped off the map". He frequently called for the elimination of Israel, a key ally of the U.S.

This drove the U.S. to rally international support against Iran's nuclear activity, causing international sanctions to be put in place which have crippled Iran's economy. These began in 2006.

This all really originated around Iran's hatred of Israel.

However, with the election of a more moderate President, Hassan Rouhani back in August, Iran has made efforts to open up negotiations with America and European countries, leading to this deal. Tensions between Iran and the U.S. and Europe have eased. However Israel still have major concerns and rightly so.

Even during the negotiations in Geneva, Iran's Supreme Leader -Khamenei publicly insulted Israel in Tehran. He was reported to have said Israeli officials "cannot be even called humans" and referred to Netanyahu as "the rabid dog of the region."
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/24/world/meast/iran-israel/

Naftali Bennett, Israeli Minister of Trade and Industry said: "If in five years, a nuclear suitcase explodes in New York or Madrid, it will be because of the agreement that was signed this morning."

One nation which has always supported Iran's nuclear programme is Russia. The deal was described almost as a victory for Russia who has long been working with Iran to help them with their Nuclear development. Russia's Vladimir Putin said after the deal was struck "A breakthrough step has been made, but only the first on a long and difficult path. As the result of talks...we managed to get closer to untying one of the most difficult knots in world politics". Once again we see Russia's influence in world politics, as it seeks to help the interests of its allies and once again we see the world falling in line with Russia's view of things.

A New Shift In Middle East Alliances
The Israeli ambassador to the U.K.  -Daniel Taub was reported by the Independent newspaper to have said:

"If you look at the region you see this very radical axis that runs from Tehran to Damascus to Beirut and actually on to Gaza, and I think that we are not alone [in being worried] about it... There are many countries that look on these issues and it’s a reminder that if we can rise above some of our immediate differences and paradigms we actually have an awful lot in common, many of our most fundamental strategic concerns are actually aligned, and of course we would be interested in trying to deepen relationships on that basis.” 

He's talking here about the Gulf States who are also very concerned about Irans nuclear capabilities  For the Biblical significance of these new shifting regional alliances which are beginning to be formed in the Middle East, between Israel and its Sunni Arab neighbours in the Gulf, please see last week's Bible in the News.

Bible Prophecy & Iran
So - why is all this interesting about Iran and how is this the Bible in the News? Well Iran is mentioned as "Persia" in the latter day prophecy of Ezekiel 38:5. This chapter records that "Persia" (Iran) will be in an alliance with European and North African nations - headed up by Russia. This alliance invades Israel from the north.

How amazing it is then, when we see relations between countries starting to move in line with Bible predictions. The west has again demonstrated that it is moving more inline with Russia's world view. Indeed the prophetic jigsaw puzzle is slowly coming together and will be completed when the Lord Jesus Christ returns to the earth to save Israel and re-establish God's Kingdom.

God will save his people
It is this point that Benjamin Netenyahu simply fails to recognise. In the clip we played at the start you may have noted him saying "It is my solemn responsibility to protect and defend the one and only Jewish state...". Many in Israel trust in him to do just this but the Jewish people would do far better to trust in the God of their ancestors and to seek His mercy. As a nation we know from the Bible that soon a time of tribulation such as never was will befall them. It would be far better for individuals within the nation to turn to the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob who is in control of world affairs and to seek His truth and mercy.

Psalm 115 declares: "O Israel, trust thou in Yahweh (the LORD): he is their help and their shield."

The question for us all is do we trust in Him? The living God.

This has been Matt Davies joining you. Join us again next week God Willing for another Bible in the News.

Friday 29 November 2013

First Sinai-based al Qaeda cell infiltrates the West Bank

Debka 28-Nov-13
The three terrorists killed by Israeli forces in the south Hebron village Yata Tuesday, Nov. 26, belonged to the first al Qaeda cell to infiltrate the West Bank from Sinai, most likely through Jordan, debkafile reports. They came to establish a major new network for attacking Israel and the Palestinian Authority - hence the combined army, Shin Bet and special anti-terror force’s expeditious action to terminate the cell. It is now feared to be the harbinger of more such cells currently embedded around Israel’s borders in Sinai, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

Washington decides to “embrace” Israel with benefits

Debka 27-Nov-13
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have decided to end the row with the Netanyahu government over the interim nuclear accord signed with Iran Sunday, Nov. 24 in Geneva, partly to gain the prime minister’s cooperation for bringing the peace process with the Palestinians to a resolution. 

On this they are set. Instead of hitting back at Binyamin Netanyahu, Washington is lining up a package of benefits, including an upgrade of the Israeli Air Force with new offensive measures currently not in its possession. This upgrade will be affected by the level of Iran’s compliance or non-compliance with its obligations under the first-step accord.

November 28, 2013 Briefs
Palestinian rocks strike Jerusalem car, injure Israeli baby
The baby was hospitalized with a serious head injury when cars driving in the Jerusalem district of Armon Hanatziv came under a hail of rocks thrown by Palestinians Thursday night.
EU: Iran's six-month nuclear freeze not yet started
Iran's six-month temporary rollback of its nuclear activities agreed to in Geneva Sunday has not begun, said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. "It will also depend on the outcome of technical discussions with Iran.”

Obama calls Saudi King amid deteriorating elations
President Barack Obama phoned Saudi King Abdullah on Wednesday to discuss the interim nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers. In the face of bitter Saudi criticism, Obama emphasized that it would be important for Iran to follow through on commitments made in the deal, the White House said.

Jerusalem, Riyadh stunned: Obama makes Iran 7th world power

Debka 25-Nov-13
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have secretly agreed to elevate Iran to the status of seventh world power for signing the interim nuclear accord in Geneva Sunday, Nov. 24, promising to live up to its obligations in the coming six months and for then signing a comprehensive agreement. While demanding respect as a regional power, never in its wildest dreams did Tehran expect big power standing with a recognized authoritative role in the wider Middle East, including the Palestinian issue. Jerusalem and Riyadh are aghast.

November 26, 2013 Briefs
Israel’s security cabinet discusses nuclear accord with Iran
The security cabinet held a special meeting Tuesday to consider the implications of the new nuclear accord with Iran, the Syrian war, Hizballah and other current threats to national security. The session was unusually long and is expected to be carried over to Wednesday. IDF and intelligence chiefs gave the ministers special briefings.

November 27, 2013 Briefs
Iran FM Zarif: Iran will continue building Arak reactor
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Wednesday, Iran will pursue construction at the Arak heavy water reactor despite the deal he signed with world powers Sunday to shelve a project capable of yielding plutonium for nuclear weapons, reversing a concession hailed by Barack Obama as key to the deal. France called it a violation. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said she wasn’t sure what Zarif meant but road or building work might be allowable.

Ten Palestinian youths indicted for Jerusalem attacks
Dozens of complaints of Palestinian rock and firebomb attacks in and around NE Jerusalem, targeting Hadassah Hospital, the Hebrew University and road traffic, led the Jerusalem police to the neighboring village of Issawiya and the break-up of two gangs of assailants. Its 10 members, all teens, members of the radical Democratic Front terrorist organization, were indicted Wednesday.

Assad regime will attend Geneva II
The Assad government said Wednesday that it will send representatives to the Syrian peace conference opening in Geneva on Jan. 22. The Syrian opposition refuses to attend unless the agenda provides for Bashar Assad’s ouster.

Two Britons arrested in Kenya
The two Britons were arrested by anti-terror police in the southern beach resort of Diano two months after Islamist gunmen stormed a Nairobi shopping mall and killed 67 people. An Interpol Red Notice warrant is still out for the suspected mastermind British Samantha Lewthwaite, known as the “White Widow.”

Tehran: White house is lying about nuclear accord details
In the first major crisis of confidence, the Iranian foreign ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham Wednesday rejected the White House version of the nuclear deal agreed in Geneva four days ago, and accused Washington of releasing a “fact sheet that is a one-sided version of the agreed text” to “mislead the American public.” This version, said Tehran, was “invalid.”

Behind Kerry’s Back. Abbas Secretly Launches Pre-1948 Palestinian Refugee Resettlement Plan in Gaza Debka 29-Nov-13 When US Secretary of State John Kerry arrives in Israel and

Debka 29-Nov-13
When US Secretary of State John Kerry arrives in Israel and Ramallah next week, he will find the Palestinians sidestepping the peace negotiations he initiated with Israel and striking out on their own behind everyone’s backs on a key element of the dispute: The Palestinian refugees’ “rights” to return to their homes in pre-1948 Israel.

DEBKA Weekly’s Middle East sources reveal that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has broken away from the talks to collude with Bashar Assad and Hamas on a secret resettlement program for the transfer of half a million Palestinians from war-torn Syria to the Gaza Strip,
Taking advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with the Iranian issue, Abbas, the Assad regime and Hamas’s prime minister of Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, have in the last two weeks moved around a thousand Palestinian refugees from Syria into the Gaza Strip through Egypt.
The Haniyeh administration is providing them with accommodation, work, medical services and schooling; the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, the funding.

Israel has flatly and consistently opposed recognition of the Palestinian refugees’ “right of return” as a maneuver for swamping the Jewish state to extinction by a Palestinian majority.

The refugee transfer is part of a wider cooperation accord the Palestinian leader reached with the Syrian ruler and revealed exclusively by debkafile on Oct. 23. Abbas pledged then that Palestinian fighters would withdraw from Syrian rebel ranks, lay down their arms and stop confronting the Syrian president and his army.

Assad, for his part, agreed to pull his troops out of Palestinian refugee camps in Damascus and Latakiya and provide them with armed protection.
He also promised to release Palestinian inmates from Syrian prisons.
Without Washington’s knowledge, Abbas made himself the first Arab leader to agree to deal with the Syrian ruler.

Wholesale Palestinian migration from Syria has begun
Our intelligence sources now report that the Abbas-Assad deal was a package which also covered the refugee issue. The Syrian ruler acceded to the Palestinian leader’s request to allow Palestinians resident in Syria to leave the country through Lebanon, provided their final destination was the Gaza Strip.
>From Lebanon, they are transferred to Egypt, where the authorities, happy to see the back of them, wave them straight through to the Gaza Strip.

At the start of the operation, only small batches of Palestinians embarked on this journey so as not to attract Israeli notice and possible interference. But when nothing happened, the numbers were boosted and thousands of Palestinian refugees are now on their way from Syria to the Gaza Strip.

The secret operation is organized by a special Palestinian Authority command center.
Israeli security sources are worried that this wholesale migration could become a destabilizing factor in the Gaza Strip and also cloak the infiltration of Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah secret agents and terrorist operatives into the Gaza Strip to spy on Israel and develop terrorist attacks.
Sunday, Nov. 24, an expanded IDF division carried out a large-scale maneuver in the South simulating the capture of Gaza City, capital of the Hamas-ruled Palestinian regime.
It was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday under the command of Brig.-Gen Micky Edelstein on orders from Chief of Staff Gen. Benny Gantz.

Conscripts fanned out through the Israeli coastal town of Ashkelon and its environs to simulate the capture of Gaza City and surrounding villages. It was the first time Israeli armed forces had ever carried out a mock exercise for taking Gaza City.


HOT POINTS
A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Week Ending Nov. 28, 2013
November 23, 2013 Briefs
Egypt and Turkey expel ambassadors, downgrade relations
Relations between Cairo and Ankara went into crisis Saturday when Egypt downgraded its relations with Turkey and declared Turkish ambassador persona non grata. Ankara responded in kind. Egypt accuses the Turkish prime minister of crudely interfering in its internal affairs by is campaign to restore the deposed president Mohamed Morsi.

November 24, 2013 Briefs
Rebel battle to break out of Damascus siege costs 150 lives
Heavy fighting erupted Sunday when rebel forces tried to break the long Syrian army siege of their strongholds in the Ghouta area east of Damascus. They were brought by famine and desperation to fight to break the stranglehold.
More than 11,000 children killed in Syria’s civil war
In nearly three years of civil war, more than 11,000 children have died, hundreds targeted by snipers, others killed in summary executions or by torture – some as young as one, the London-based Oxford Research Group reports.

Tehran will scrap interim deal if Congress enacts new sanctions
debkafile’s Iranian sources report that Iran has warned Washington that if the US Congress legislates new, harsher sanctions, it will treat the interim accord signed in Geneva Sunday as null and void.
Kerry: The new nuclear accord makes Israel safer
On a visit to London, Secretary of State John Kerry remarked that the interim accord signed Sunday in Geneva would make Israel safer during the next six months of negotiations.
Putin hails the deal with Iran as a breakthrough
Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the newly-signed first-step nuclear accord with Iran as a breakthrough and “just the beginning!”

Iran says deal recognizes Iran’s enrichment right. Kerry denies
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced Sunday that the deal reached in Geneva means the world powers recognize Tehran's “nuclear rights.” Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on Twitter that Iran’s enrichment rights had been recognized in the negotiations.
But US Secretary of State John Kerry denied this, saying, “The first step, let me be clear, does not say that Iran has a right to enrich uranium." Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed the Iranian interpretation.

Netanyahu: Deal lets Iran gain a nuclear bomb. Israel not bound
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu slammed the interim nuclear deal signed in Geneva early Sunday as “a historic mistake that makes the world a more dangerous place.” Israel is not obligated by this agreement.” Iran is committed to Israel’s destruction, he said and "I want to make clear… Israel will not allow Iran develop a military nuclear capability. For the deal, Iran made “cosmetic concessions that it can do away with in a matter of weeks,” the prime minister said.

Seven loopholes favoring Iran in the new nuclear deal
24 Nov. The first preliminary nuclear deal the six world powers (US, Russia, China, UK, France and German) signed with Iran before dawn Sunday, Nov. 24, failed to address the most suspicious elements of Iran’s nuclear program, i.e. its clandestine military dimensions. The expanded UN inspections were not linked, for instance, to Iran’s concealed nuclear sites or even Parchin, where Iran is suspected of testing nuclear-related explosions. Israel, the Gulf States and others are therefore dubious of the accord’s capacity to freeze Iran’s nuclear program. debkafile lists seven of the most glaring loopholes

Nuclear deal reached between Iran and six world powers in Geneva 24 Nov. 

After all-night talks, a first-step nuclear deal was struck Sunday in Geneva between Iran and the six powers. Obama said key aspects of Iran’s nuclear program will be rolled back in return for limited sanctions relief. No new centrifuges will added to the enrichment process, work will stop at the Arak nuclear reactor and the UN will expand inspections to daily visits to Natanz and Fordo to ensure that Iran was unable to make a nuclear bomb. The core sanctions architecture will remain in place pending a comprehensive solution to be negotiated in the next s six months, said the president, but no new sanctions will be imposed.

debkafile: None of the measures revealed so far deal with the concealed military features of Iran’s nuclear program, or the details of expanded inspections. Israel is not expected to accept any document with those omissions. Israel and Saudi Arabia said they would not be bound by the deal’s provisions and reserved their military options.

November 25, 2013 Briefs
Tehran reports US released $8 billion of Iran’s assets
Iranian government spokesman Mohammad-Baqer Nobakht reported Monday night that the US had released $8 bn of Iran’s frozen assets, the day after it reached a first-step nuclear deal with six world powers.

Netanyahu to send national security adviser to Washington
Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu is sending his national security adviser, Yossi Cohen, to Washington for talks on the nuclear accord just signed in Geneva.
Syrian peace conference set for Jan. 22
UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon announced Monday that the Syrian peace conference, “Geneva II,” has been scheduled for Jan. 22.

Saudis warn they will strike out on their own after Iran nuclear deal
Senior Saudi royal adviser Nawaf Obaid Monday accused Western allies of deceit in striking a nuclear accord with Iran and declared Riyadh would follow an independent foreign policy. “We were lied to, things were hidden from us,” he said. “The problem is not with the deal struck in Geneva but how it was done.” In Riyadh, the Saudi government cautiously welcomed the Geneva nuclear accord hoping it was a first step towards a comprehensive solution for Iran’s nuclear program.

Canada deeply skeptical of the six-power nuclear deal with Iran
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said Sunday that Canada will not lift any of its sanctions against Iran until the Islamic regime fully abandons its nuclear weapon ambitions. He said he is deeply skeptical of the deal closed in Geneva between the six world powers and Iran, given Tehran’s record of defying the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In Washington, the White House announced after a telephone call from President Barack Obama to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that they had agreed to stay in close touch during the next six months of negotiations on a comprehensive solution of the Iranian nuclear issue.
France backpedals, doesn’t expect Israeli strike on Iran
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius estimates that Israel will not now take preemptive military action against a nuclear Iran while the world was in mid-negotiation with Tehran on a comprehensive nuclear agreement. Two Arab emirates break ranks with Saudi Arabia: The UAE said that the interim deal could support “the stability of the region,” and Bahrain found it “removes fears from us, whether from Iran or any other state.”

The US-Israel Nuclear Feud. Obama’s Diplomacy Blamed for Letting Iran Reach the Nuclear Threshold

Debka 29-Nov-13
The nine-point package of US benefits delivered to the office of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu this week to mollify him for the interim nuclear accord signed with Iran Sunday, Nov, 24, was greeted with shrugs.

Netanyahu understood what was behind it. President Barack Obama wanted to put an end to his fierce verbal assaults and draw his government back into normal cooperation with Washington, in readiness for the resumption of US-sponsored peace talks with the Palestinians, for which Secretary of State John Kerry arrives next week.

In the White House, DEBKA Weekly’s Washington sources this week picked up the following counter-attack on the Israeli prime minister: He complains that the Geneva deal recognized Iran as a pre- nuclear state, they say. But Iran reached that point more a year ago, so why didn’t Israel strike its nuclear program then or even earlier in 2011? All the administration did in Geneva was to freeze the current situation, for which Israel is just as responsible as America.This argument is as hypocritical as it is misleading, because it blames Israel for trusting Obama’s promises instead of pushing back harder, or else following through on its threatened military option on the assumption that the Obama administration would have provided full backing. But would it?

For now, Washington is treating Iran’s near-nuclear bomb capacity as an accomplished fact and demands Jerusalem’s continued cooperation in addressing it.
Promises, promises…
DEBKA Weekly has obtained the nine-point US package on offer to the Netanyahu government for its cooperation:

1. If Iran is still dragging its feet on a final deal in a year’s time - a period amply covered by the six-month negotiating period to which Tehran committed in Geneva - then the Obama administration would turn relations with Tehran back to the situation prior to the Geneva accord.
Israeli officials don’t quite understand this point, considering that Obama’s dialogue with Tehran did not start in Geneva but ran on secret channels for years before that.
2. All US intelligence resources will be pressed into service to ensure that Iran’s nuclear weapons program remains frozen where it is now.
3. If Iran is discovered reneging on its pledge to convert its 20-percent enriched Iranian stocks to oxide powder and reconverts them back to their highly-enriched state, Washington will deem Tehran in violation of its commitment under the interim nuclear accord.
4. The US will upgrade Israel’s military capabilities, including its air force (as first revealed exclusively by debkafile on Nov. 26).
US intelligence will track watchdog findings
5. The administration will no longer interfere in congressional initiatives to enact tougher sanctions against Iran, provided new legislation takes effect only if US nuclear diplomacy with Iran fails.
6. US intelligence experts will receive footage from the cameras the International Atomic Energy Agency has installed at nuclear facilities and examine them daily, simultaneously with the watchdog.
7. The same access will apply to the film from the centrifuge production chambers.
8. The US will place a cap on the grade of uranium enrichment permitted under the final comprehensive accord and promises Israel it will be less than 20 percent.
9. The two sets of incentives the US is submitting to Israel and Saudi Arabia will be considered a single, comprehensive package.
The Netanyahu government is still examining these points to determine how far they go toward partly offsetting the substantial gains made by Iran toward a nuclear weapon capacity, which the Geneva accord freezes in place - at best.

US Enticements for Saudi Arabia and Israel. Obama Prepares 15 “Prizes” to Cool Tempers in Riyadh and Jerusalem

Debka 29-Nov-13
US President Barack Obama thinks he has concocted 15 irresistible prizes for pacifying and allaying the concerns of Saudi King Abdullah and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu over his planned partnership with Tehran for the management of the region’s affairs.

These inducements have only just been presented to Riyadh and Jerusalem, DEBKA Weekly’s sources report. They may have been framed some time ago as part of the checks and balances built into US concessions for the first-step nuclear deal signed with Iran in Geneva on Sunday, Nov. 24. Or they may have been thrown together in a hurry to calm the angry storms stirred up by that deal and melt some of the ice overlaying Saudi and Israeli relations with Washington.

However generous the packages, they cannot overcome the serious deficiency of trust which mars the two governments’ attitude towards the Obama administration and was sharply exacerbated by the deal with Iran. President Barack Obama’s oft-declared determination to prevent Iran gaining a nuclear weapon is greeted with unbelief in both Middle East capitals. Indeed, both are sure that in Geneva, he knowingly opened the door to a nuclear-armed Iran and that Tehran is more than ready to walk through that door.

The perks for Saudi Arabia

To pierce this high wall of mistrust, the administration this week delivered to Riyadh and Jerusalem two packages of tranquilizers. Their contents will not gladden hearts in Tehran because they impinge on the big-power privileges the US has promised the Islamic republic. (see a separate article in this issue for details.)
Washington offered Saudi Arabia six inducements for burying the hatchet, including major policy U-turns:
1. In one such reversal, the US is willing to help stabilize interim rule in Cairo, withdraw support from the Muslim Brotherhood, stop demanding the release from jail of deposed President Mohamed Morsi and assist in the transition to civilian rule - even if the military strongman Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is elected president.
Obama is willing to work with the Saudi rulers to achieve these goals, but only if Riyadh cooperates and abandons its decision to pursue an independent foreign policy as announced this week. If it refuses, the Obama administration will continue on its own path.
2. Washington promises to make every possible effort to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace talks to meet an incessant Saudi demand.

Obama promises to help Libya out of its crisis
3. The US will abandon its stand-aside posture on the Syrian question and take the driving seat for a political solution of the war against the Assad regime, a seat currently occupied by Moscow.
4. America will turn on the tap for non-military assistance of food, medicines, building materials and vehicles to rebel-held areas of Syria.

5. The administration has informed Riyadh and the Gulf emirates that the US will apply itself to dealing with the Libyan crisis: American resources and manpower will be made available for establishing and training a national Libyan army, a police force and intelligence agencies, and preparing them to defend the regime against the militias sowing mayhem in the country.
This assurance to Riyadh included a promise to help the Saudis install a robust central government in Tripoli capable of extending its rule to the rest of the country.
6. Washington assured Riyadh it would take action to stabilize the Bahrain kingdom. A similar, though reverse, US pledge was made to Tehran.

The US-Iran Nuclear Deal: First Step Still to Come. US Makes Iran Strategic Partner in Six World Zones – from Indian Ocean to Palestine

Debka 29-Nov-13
The brittleness of the first-step nuclear accord with Iran was apparent just 24 hours after it was signed with a flourish by the six powers in Geneva Sunday, Nov. 24, after four days of fierce haggling.
Monday, the day after, President Barack Obama addressed the world triumphantly from San Francisco: “Huge challenges remain, but we cannot close the door on diplomacy, and we cannot rule out peaceful solutions to the world’s problems. We cannot commit ourselves to an endless cycle of violence and tough talk and bluster (a dig at Binyamin Netanyahu) may be the easy thing to do politically, but it’s not the right thing for our security.”

But the next day, Iranian Foreign Minister spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham publicly accused the White House of lying about the accord.
“What has been released by the White House website as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and, in some of the explanations and words in the sheet, contradicted the text of the Joint Plan of Action.”
Speaking on the authority of Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, who signed the accord in Geneva, she went on to accuse the White House of releasing “a factually inaccurate primer” to “mislead the American public.” Therefore, she said, the deal is “invalid.”

Iran not yet obliged to start six-month nuclear freeze

Following this up, the BBC reported that “US officials are still staying mum about when exactly the final deal was struck” and went on to say: “The White House itself confirmed that the final details of the plan have yet to be worked out, meaning that Iran is not yet beholden to a six-month freeze on its nuclear activities.”
Then, pouring more fuel, Zarif himself announced Wednesday, Nov. 27, that Iran will pursue construction at the Arak heavy water reactor, despite its commitment under the new deal to shelve a project capable of yielding plutonium for nuclear weapons.

This consent was presented by President Obama on the day of signing as one of the two most important Iranian concessions. France responded that the Iranian minister’s remark was a violation of the accord. Nonetheless, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said she wasn’t sure what Zarif meant but road or building work might be allowable.

The next day, US sources tried to clear up the confusion by explaining its opposition to a heavy-water reactor at Arak, rather than just a halt in supplies for it: Because this reactor would generate plutonium that could be used for a bomb. This is seen as dangerous and unnecessary for a civilian program.
Given the cracks in this early stage of nuclear diplomacy with Tehran, how come the Obama administration was so quick to release $8 billion of Iranian assets frozen in US banks, before Iran had even owned up to any obligation to start freezing its nuclear activities?
The extravagant hugs and congratulations traded by the Geneva negotiators Sunday morning and the general ballyhoo are turning out to have been premature. This raises three hard questions:

Zarif maneuvers for less commitments and a better deal

1. What document was signed in Geneva? The version released by the White House (http://washin.st/1928gPM) is rejected by Tehran as a “one-sided interpretation,” while the BBC, which must have consulted the knowledgeable Foreign Secretary William Hague who was there, asserts that “the final details of the plan have yet to be worked out…”

2. Does Iran have a second version of the accord different from the American one? Tehran’s suggestion that the White House version is “not true” and “one-sided” points to that assumption. If a second version does exist, Tehran has never offered to share it with the public or release its own interpretation of the document to challenge the Washington text.

3. So what exactly was negotiated in Geneva? A formal agreement or a set of confidential parallel understandings reached privately between Washington and Tehran over and above the published document?
One key to these mysteries, according to the input DEBKA Weekly has gathered from its intelligence, Washington and Iranian sources, falls in the realm of political manipulation.

The highly inventive Iranian foreign minister Zarif decided to drive through the gap of the unfinished plan and show his hard-line critics that he had not given away as much as they suspected in Geneva; specifically, he had not signed off onto a halt in 20-percent enriched uranium or the suspension of construction at Arak on the heavy water reactor.
Moreover, he is trying to use the time lag to twist the still unfinished details into more advantageous shapes and maneuver for more delay.
(More about Iranian opposition plans to derail the accord in the next article.)

Obama’s can’t-refuse offer to Iran
Washington’s answer to this fresh Iranian maneuver was an offer which the Obama administration believed Tehran, with its fierce hunger for national respect, couldn’t refuse, namely, the status of seventh world power as the prize for meeting its obligations under the six-month interim nuclear accord and cooperation in negotiating a comprehensive agreement next May.
The Obama administration further oiled the wheels by releasing on the spot some US sanctions without waiting for Iranian compliance.

Washington expected the ayatollahs to be awed into nuclear flexibility by admittance to the elite club of leading world powers, as the recognized arbiter in a broad region spanning the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and Western Asia, including Afghanistan. It was further spiced with the offer of a role for Tehran in major decisions on the Palestinian issue.
Secretary of State John Kerry quickly put the proposal into practice by getting together with Foreign Minister Zarif to form six US-Iranian working panels for secret sessions that would be conducted in Muscat, capital of Oman.

(Certain US media suddenly this week claimed to have broken the news of a secret track used by President Obama for secret negotiations with Tehran through Oman’s Sultan Qaboos. In fact, debkafile and DEBKA Weekly first uncovered the Qaboos track on Aug. 26, 2013 and were on the trail of back-channel communications between Washington and Tehran as early as Jan.26, 2012, more than a year ago.)

Washington sanctifies Iranian-Russian cooperation
Immediately after signing the first-step nuclear accord, Iran was therefore showered with American largesse: billions of dollars arrived to prop up its tottering economy and a strong say with world-class authority was conferred for current international issues. And that was just for starters. More benefits were waiting down the road for a final agreement on its nuclear program.
The Obama administration has made a high-stakes gamble, counting on its rapprochement with Tehran evolving to a point where Iran cannot go back on nuclear understandings. For now, despite White House pretensions, those understandings are only promised but not yet delivered.

The six joint US-Iranian panels have been assigned the following spheres:
Afghanistan: The White House is working on setting up a coalition with Russia and Iran for a joint effort, including military action, to obstruct Taliban’s path to its restoration to power in Kabul upon President Hamid Karzai’s retirement. Won’t they avoid the Afghan quagmire like the plague, especially after the USSR’s unfortunate experience there thirty years ago? The Obama administration thinks not: Moscow and Tehran will have learned from their shared military intervention in the Syrian war that their accreditation as potent world powers is predicated on their engagement in foreign adventures.
Syria. Obama reckons that the joint panels can get both sides of the conflict to lay down arms by drying up both their sources of munitions – the Syrian army and the different rebel forces alike.
The administration hopes to persuade Moscow and Iran to stop sending Bashar Assad’s army arms, ammunition and fuel and to eventually persuade Saudi Arabia, the only power now furnishing some of the militias with weapons, to suspend this assistance.

It is calculated in Washington that Riyadh has by now grasped that its Syrian venture is a flop and will use the international initiative to disentangle itself from a lost cause.
DEBKA Weekly’s Middle East sources doubt whether this is how the Saudis see their Syrian effort.

The Saudis won’t let Iran return as policeman of the Gulf
Lebanon. US officials believe it is urgent to replace the rickety arrangements in Beirut with a solid national salvation government. Cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is deemed essential for preventing Lebanon’s further descent into instability. The first US approach for cooperation was addressed to Tehran, a move which gave rise to rumors of direct US talks with the Shiite terrorist organization, Hizballah.
Persian Gulf. One of the special US-Iranian panels was to work on mending fences between Tehran and the emirates, with the strongest accent on Saudi Arabia; its ally Bahrain will the top its agenda.
Seen from the Arabian Gulf, this move will make Iran the policeman of the Gulf, a position it held in the 1970s. This is the part of the secret understandings between Washington and Tehran which has most inflamed the Saudis against the Obama administration and stirred the royal house to announce an independent foreign policy henceforth.

Northern Indian Ocean. This vast region extends from the Gulf of Aden, past the Horn of Africa and ending at the Seychelles. The administration is offering to join forces with Tehran to suppress al Qaeda activities and marine piracy, an issue which has been off the front pages for some time but is still very much alive.

Netanyahu won’t give Iran a seat at the talks
The Palestinian issue: By bringing Tehran into the US-sponsored peace process ongoing between Israel and the Palestinians, Obama hopes to tie Iranian hands against derailing the administrations next steps by using its terrorist allies and surrogates, such as the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to make trouble.
The Saudis were not alone in hitting the ceiling over the senior strategic role Obama is handing out to Iran in the region. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu can’t abide the thought of facing a united American-Iranian panel standing over Israel’s negotiations with the Palestinians.

On the face of it, the Obama administration has been moved by Israel and Saudi indignation over its new plans for the region and Tehran’s elevation and is trying to appease them both, as will be seen in the next articles.

Problems of Eastward Expansion

German Foreign Policy 27-Nov-13
In the run-up of the EU's "Eastern Partnership" summit scheduled to begin tomorrow in Vilnius, Berlin's expansion project is threatened to fail. Only two countries, Georgia and Moldova, will sign Association Agreements, while Belarus and Armenia prefer to join the "Eurasian Customs Union" with Russia. However, the biggest blow comes from the Ukraine, which has halted preparations for signing the EU Association Agreement. Germany has left no stone unturned in its efforts to eventually break the Ukraine completely out of the Russian sphere of influence and integrate it into Berlin's hegemonic system. German media now speaks of the "battle for the Ukraine" and a "new Iron Curtain," to be vanquished in the East. German government advisors had, in fact, already planned to forge ahead to integrate Russia into a European free trade zone, after the six countries have been firmly integrated into the German sphere of influence. This now has also been put into question.

Ever Further Eastward
The real significance of the "Eastern Partnership" that Berlin planned to consolidate this week in Vilnius, can only be seen from the historical perspective - when viewing Europe's situation 25 years ago. Even though the Federal Republic of German (FRG) had had a bit of influence in the East, it was restricted, in large part, by its borders with the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Comprehensive eastward expansion of the FRG's industry had been blocked merely by the existence of the socialist countries' alliances. The 1989/91 upheavals in Eastern and Southeastern Europe opened doors for the FRG. But preparation and implementation of the EU's eastern enlargement has not only facilitated the solid integration of most of the countries in that region into the German hegemonic system - the EU - but also the alignment of their economic and legal norms on German standards. The objective is to also integrate those five remaining southeast European non-EU member countries. To continue the eastward expansion, Berlin and Brussels have initiated an association of six other countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus - the "Eastern Partnership". This "Eastern Partnership" is also part of Germany's efforts to expand its influence and align the norms of these countries with German-European standards ("economic integration").

A New "Iron Curtain"

That project is now doomed to fail. Even though the Association Agreement is supposed to be signed with Georgia and Moldova at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, it is still being negotiated with Azerbaijan. Armenia has decided to join the "Eurasian Customs Union" that already includes Belarus. The "Eurasian Customs Union" is an alliance predominated by Russia and is seen as a rival by Berlin and Brussels. However, most significant is the fact that the Ukraine, the largest and by far strategically most important of the six "Eastern Partnership" countries, has postponed preparations for its signing the Association Agreement. The majority of the country's oligarchs prefer the sort of limbo position between the West and East, without taking sides for one or the other, therefore hoping to retain a maximum freedom of prerogative. According to warnings in Berlin, the rejection of the EU's Association Agreement could even lead to the Ukraine's integration into Russian alliances. And the German media even speaks of a new "Iron Curtain."[1]

Struggle for Natural Gas Supply
Over the past few years, Germany has been working hard to integrate the Ukraine into its hegemonic system. Intense power struggles have been waged in the field of energy supply. The Ukraine has always been dependant on deliveries of Russian natural gas and this, in turn, has facilitated Russia's exertion of considerable pressure on Kiev. However, the shale gas boom in the USA has unexpectedly opened new options for Berlin and Brussels. Since recently, the United States is in a position to dump large quantities of shale gas onto the market and with the ever growing volumes of low priced liquid gas (LNG) - for example from Qatar - being available, world market gas can now be delivered to the Ukraine via Western Europe - through pipelines, which had previously been supplying Western Europe via the Ukraine with Russian natural gas. This has also become possible because Russian deliveries are being routed via the Baltic Sea through the "North Stream" pipeline. Since last year, the West, with also the participation of German companies, has been, in fact, supplying the Ukraine with natural gas - primarily, at the moment, via pipelines through Poland and Hungary. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[2]) Now an additional accord between the Ukraine and Slovakia is ready to be signed, which is supposed to break the Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas for good. Bratislava had adamantly refused to be drawn into the power struggles between Berlin and Moscow, but is now relenting under EU pressure. The German RWE Corp. is supposed to furnish the Ukraine with gas also via Slovakian pipelines beginning in the middle of 2014.[3]
"Battle for the Ukraine"

Should the Ukraine persist in its refusal to sign the EU's Association Agreement, this could be a political defeat for German efforts. Berlin is, of course, not giving up. The German government has announced it remains open to Kiev changing its course to favor the West, and does not preclude that the EU Association Agreement could be signed at a later date. Last week, observers were already considering that no final decision must be taken in Vilnius. The main thing is that "the contact" to Kiev "not be lost, so that the Ukrainian pendulum does not swing eastward," which if successful, the signing of the Association Agreement can be postponed to the spring of 2014.[4] In the meantime, Berlin's close allies in the Ukraine have begun protest demonstrations to force the Ukrainian government to sign the Association Agreement.[5] The German media is already referring to a "battle for the Ukraine."[6] The power struggle between Berlin, Brussels, Kiev and Moscow has not yet been decided.
All the Way to the Pacific?

Beyond the power struggle for the Ukraine, German foreign policy specialists have already turned their attention to the period after the summit in Vilnius. Even if the Association Agreement is signed, the EU will be really put to the test, according to a paper published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The necessary reforms must be carried out in the countries of the "Eastern Partnership," their implementation supervised. The implementation of the Association Agreement calls for "stringent and, in part, very painful social adjustment measures," predicts the DGAP. Then, one could, in the long run, approach integrating even Moscow into the European treaty system, for example within a "common free trade zone."[7] This would open up the perspective for German companies of an uninhibited economic expansion not only up to the Urals, but even all the way to the Pacific. However, these plans have now been dealt a serious setback. Through the Ukraine's refusal to sign the EU's Association Agreement, the expansion of Berlin's hegemonic system has for the first time suffered a serious throttle.

Other reports and background information on German policy toward the Ukraine can be found here: Between Moscow and Berlin, The Boxer's Punch, Between Moscow and Berlin (III), Between Moscow and Berlin (IV), Fatherland and Freedom and Battle for the Ukraine. [German footnotes removed]

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet gets new stealth submarine

PanARMENIAN.Net 28-Nov-13

A St. Petersburg-based shipyard on Thursday, Nov 28, floated out the first of six Varshavyanka-class diesel-electric submarines to be delivered to the Black Sea Fleet in the next two years, RIA Novosti reported.

The much-anticipated delivery of these submarines, dubbed by the U.S. Navy as “black holes in the ocean” because they are nearly undetectable when submerged, is a key part of Russia’s naval strategy in the Mediterranean, where Moscow has recently deployed a permanent task force consisting of some 10 surface ships.

Construction of the Novorossiisk submarine started at Admiralty Shipyards in August 2010, followed by the Rostov-on-Don sub in November 2011 and the Stary Oskol in August 2012.
The Varshavyanka-class (Project 636) is an improved version of the Kilo-class submarines and features advanced stealth technology, extended combat range and the ability to strike land, surface and underwater targets.

These submarines are mainly intended for anti-shipping and anti-submarine missions in relatively shallow waters.
The vessels, crewed by 52 submariners, have an underwater speed of 20 knots, a cruising range of 400 miles (electric propulsion) with the ability to patrol for 45 days. They are armed with 18 torpedoes and eight surface-to-air missiles.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has not received new submarines for decades and currently operates only one

US offering to destroy Syrian chemicals at sea

Associated Press 28-Nov-13
Plan still subject to approval, will involve destroying weapons in Mediterranean Sea, US officials say
The Obama administration is offering to destroy some of Syria's deadliest chemical weapons in international waters aboard a nearly 700-foot, US government-owned ship, US officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday.
The plan, still subject to final approval, would involve destroying the weapons, likely aboard the MV Cape Ray in the Mediterranean Sea, with US Navy warships patrolling nearby.
This approach would avoid the vexing diplomatic, environmental and security problems posed by disposing of the materials on any nation's soil.
The Obama administration has used international oceans in other sensitive cases where land-based options were precluded. The US Navy buried al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden at sea to avoid his tomb becoming an attraction for extremists. The government has been questioning terror suspects for as long as it takes aboard Navy ships since the CIA closed its secret prisons overseas and President Barack Obama has refused to send more prisoners to the detention center at the US base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
The decision to proceed with the chemical disposal plan would be made by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, a global chemical weapons watchdog agency with 190 member states.
In a statement Wednesday in the Netherlands, the watchdog agency said the effort to ship Syria's chemical arsenal out of the country "continues to pose challenges due to the security situation on the ground."
No country has committed to disposing of the chemical weapons on its own soil, which is why the US offer to destroy the deadliest of the chemical components at sea is seen as a likely option.
The US officials who disclosed aspects of the US portion of the plan spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about it by name.

Jonathan Lalley, a spokesman for the president's National Security Council, stressed that no decisions had been made regarding destroying chemicals outside of Syria.
"We and our international partners are pursuing alternative means of destruction, and we will continue discussing with other countries how they might best contribute to that effort," Lalley said in a statement. "We remain confident that we will complete elimination of the program within the milestones agreed upon."
The MV Cape Ray is a Virginia-based ship owned by the Transportation Department. It would host the destruction of some of the deadliest of Syria's chemical materials using a process developed by the Pentagon but never employed in an actual operation.

The US would use what it calls a mobile Field Deployable Hydrolysis System to neutralize the chemical material, making it unusable as weapons. The system was developed by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which is an arm of the Pentagon. The titanium reactor uses heated water and other chemicals to make the chemical warfare material inert.
According to several US officials, two of the hydrolysis units would be mounted on the Cape Ray. It will take some time to retrofit the ship and conduct training to insure that the process can be done successfully at sea.

Once the mission is finalized and the Cape Ray is ready, it would be transferred to control of the Defense Department's Military Sealift Command. The ship is owned by the Transportation Department's Maritime Administration and is currently based in Portsmouth, Va. It would have a civilian crew.
US officials said they expect to use US Navy ships to provide an escort and security for the operation. There are already a number of Navy warships in the Mediterranean.

As of Wednesday, US officials said they are still trying to determine how the chemical warfare materials would be moved from Syria to the US ship. They said they expect that another country will provide a ship for that part of the task.
Officials said they expect a final decision soon and the operation would begin by the end of the year.

US and Israel planning large exercises at end of six month deal

Israel Chris Emb Jeru. 28-Nov-13
TIME magazine reported on Thursday that at the end of the six-month period set down by a recent agreement between Iran and the P5+1 nuclear powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) designed to resolve the crisis over Iran’s renegade nuclear program, a large military training exercise will be carried out involving forces of Israel and the US. “[The exercise] is going to be big,” an Israeli officer said. “The wind from the Americans into the Israeli sails is, ‘We will maintain our capability to strike in Iran, and one of the ways we show it is to train. It will send signals both to Israel and to the Iranians that we are maintaining our capabilities in the military option. The atmosphere is we have to do it big time, we have to do a big show of capabilities and connections.”

TIME also quoted the Israeli source as saying that the Jewish State has made a “strategic decision to continue to make noise.”

The report came as senior diplomats from France and the UK visited Israel to consult with Israeli security, defense and intelligence officials about the negotiations and the plan for an endgame with Iran. US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is due to return to Jerusalem next week, also made a video address aimed at Congress and the American people on Wednesday, addressing the negotiations and the Obama Administration’s plans going forward.

Elsewhere, US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters Tuesday that the six-month countdown has not yet begun, and that the next phase will feature “a continuation of technical discussions at a working level so that we can essentially tee up the implementation of the agreement.”
The next day, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, told Iran’s Parliament that the Islamic Republic will continue construction work at the Arak heavy water plant, a direct violation of the agreement that was announced last Saturday. Iranian officials have also said the US mis-represented the deal saying it included things that Iran had not in fact agreed to.

"The agreement is silent on the manufacturing of remaining key components of the reactor and its continued heavy-water production," former chief UN nuclear inspector Olli Heinonen wrote in an analysis. "Technically, such efforts are not reasonable if the goal is either to dismantle the reactor or modify it to a more proliferation-resistant, smaller light-water reactor as one of the alternative paths of producing isotopes for medical and industrial purposes."
However, on Thursday Iranian officials issued an invitation for UN inspectors to visit the Arak facility on 8 December.

Cameron: UK will stand with Israel, keep pressure on Iran

Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM). 28-Nov-13
Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday sought to provide assurances over concerns surrounding the interim deal struck last weekend in Geneva between the P5+1 powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) and Iran.

Critics, especially those in Israel have pointed out the six-month agreement allows Tehran some sanctions relief, but does not require Iran to dismantle any of its centrifuges. Speaking yesterday at a reception in Downing Street to mark the Jewish festival of Chanukah, Cameron said “I know there will be great scepticism, I know there will be great worry [regarding the deal]. I share that scepticism, I share that worry. I don’t have any starry-eyed view of what this Iranian regime offers.” He pledged that “As far as I’m concerned, an enemy of Israel is an enemy of mine. A threat to Israel is a threat to us all,” adding “I can promise you this: Britain will stand with Israel, Britain will support Israel, Britain will keep the pressure up on Iran. We do not want you to have… a nuclear threat facing your country.”

Meanwhile, Simon Gass, Political Director-General at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the UK’s lead negotiator on Iran, met yesterday with Israel’s Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz in Jerusalem. Gass told the media that “core sanctions on oil and gas and financial transactions remain in place” against Iran and that the UK will ensure the sanctions regime is “policed and enforced tightly.” Gass said talks with Steinitz had been “good” and the UK “always had a very close and friendly dialogue with Israel over Iran, which we recognize as a core security interest for Israel.” Emphasising that the purpose of his visit was to “continue our close consultation with Israel on the Iranian dossier,” Gass added “we have agreed on the need to work together and look toward the future.”

Low Expectations at the Eastern Partnership Summit

Stratfor 27-Nov-13
Summary
Pro-European demonstrators, angered at Russia's perceived meddling in Ukraine's attempts to strengthen ties with the EU, protest in the Western city of Lviv, Nov. 27.
The European Union will hold a summit of the Eastern Partnership, its flagship program to build closer ties with former Soviet states in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan), in Vilnius on Nov. 28-29. The highly anticipated summit was expected to make significant progress with a number of its target states, but the past few months have seen intensified competition between the European Union and Russia over the Eastern Partnership states.

Moscow's notable gains over Brussels, particularly in Ukraine and Armenia, have greatly tempered expectations over what can be achieved at the summit. Various obstacles, including Russian opposition, EU divisions and the domestic political constraints of the target states themselves, stand in the way of the Eastern Partnership's effectiveness moving forward.

Analysis
The Eastern Partnership program, launched as an initiative led by Poland and Sweden in 2009, has been the European Union's primary avenue to strengthening relations and integration between the bloc and the six former Soviet countries on its eastern periphery. The Eastern Partnership was initiated as Russia expanded its own influence in these countries, especially during the Russo-Georgian War of 2008, which formally marked Moscow's return as a regional power. The explicit goal of the Eastern Partnership was to enhance economic and political ties between the European Union and the six target states, but it was also implicitly created as a means of preventing Russia from building a dominant position in these countries.

The main pillars of the Eastern Partnership program are the association and free trade agreements, which are designed to integrate the legal, judicial and economic systems of the target states to fit EU norms. The Eastern Partnership also provides financial assistance to assist member states in reaching these goals. Though the agreements do not officially guarantee that these countries become EU members, many EU officials -- especially those from Central and Eastern Europe -- have said that they serve as an important stepping-stone in this direction.

However, the program has had only limited success since its founding. The actual payouts and impact of the scheme have been relatively modest so far, with 600 million euros allocated for economic and democracy-building projects in participating states from 2010 to 2013. Certain countries such as Belarus and Azerbaijan have shown little interest in applying the political reforms designated by the Eastern Partnership and ultimately are not trying to become EU members. Indeed, Belarus has undergone further centralization of political power, becoming subject to EU sanctions rather than integrating more closely with the bloc. Nevertheless, other countries with a stronger Western orientation, such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, have made significant progress in the application of reforms needed to reach the association and free trade agreements. Even Armenia, which is strongly integrated with Russia, has made substantial efforts to comply with the accord.

With expectations of continued progress, the Vilnius summit became the most highly anticipated meeting since the Eastern Partnership's founding. Many predicted that Ukraine would make the significant move of signing the association and free trade agreements during the summit, and that Armenia, Georgia and Moldova would initial the deals before signing them the following year. Despite the initially optimistic prognosis, however, recent obstacles have made it likely that these expectations will fall short.
Russian Interference
Russia has actively sought to disrupt this integration process, largely because talks between the European Union and eastern periphery states reached such an advanced stage. For example, Moscow threatened to raise natural gas prices in Armenia while simultaneously offering financial and security incentives to Yerevan if it halted its integration with the European Union. 

As a result, Armenia announced it would join Moscow's rival Customs Union, effectively eliminating any prospect of moving forward with the EU deals. Russia applied even greater pressure on Ukraine, primarily via the implementation of trade restrictions on many of the country's exports. Russian officials explicitly stated that such restrictions would intensify if Ukraine followed through with its EU intentions. Realizing that such action would have a devastating economic impact, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich announced last week that the EU talks would be frozen and instead proposed a trilateral format to discuss economic and energy issues with the European Union and Russia.

Russia's maneuvering has thus deprived the European Union of two key countries that were expected to move forward with their agreements at the EU summit. In the meantime, officials from Moldova and Georgia -- both of which are set to initial the deals at the summit -- have said that they intend to move forward with these plans, giving some indication of progress. But even if these countries are to initial before signing, there are several factors that would dilute their importance. 

First, these countries are much less strategically relevant to the European Union than Ukraine in terms of their size and significance. Second, initialing the deals will not necessarily lead to signatures, as the Ukrainian case has shown. Furthermore, Russia has already begun to increase pressure on these states as well; Moscow has threatened Moldova with trade and energy cutoffs if it continues with its planned integration, something Chisinau will have to take seriously moving forward.

It is not only Russia that is hampering the effectiveness of the Eastern Partnership program. From its inception, the program has been much more actively supported by Central and Eastern European countries like Poland and Lithuania, which have greater historical and strategic interests in the borderland states than the more distant Germany and France. Internal political issues within the Eastern Partnership states have also created obstacles, as the imprisonment of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko has shown.
Even if countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can muster substantial public support for EU orientation -- which would guarantee a continued effort at building EU ties -- there are also significant domestic elements that are politically opposed to any firm swings toward the union. These factors, combined with Russia's active opposition to EU influence in the Eastern Partnership states, will continue to present significant obstacles to the program, the effects of which will likely be seen in the upcoming Vilnius summit and beyond.

Israel making plans for high-intensity, 3-week war with Hizbullah

GeoStrategy direct w/e 27-Nov-13

Israel has been planning for a high-intensity three-week war with Hizbullah, a report said.
The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs said Israel has been bolstering its air and ground campaign for an expected war with the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah. In a report, the institute said Israel would seek to stop Hizbullah missile barrages, which could reach 2,000 per day.

"Israelis believe that the only solution to neutralizing Hizbullah is through a rapid, highly coordinated ground and air campaign lasting no more than three weeks and relying on actionable intelligence, precise targeting, fast and accurate data transmission, overwhelming firepower, and rapid maneuver," the report, "The 2013 JINSA Generals and Admirals Trip to Israel and Jordan," said.
The report, based on a tour in October 2013, said Israel expected to sustain more casualties on the home front than on the battlefield. For its part, Israel, bogged down in the 2006 war, has been challenged by the prospect of heavy Hizbullah resistance to any infantry advance.
"Logistical challenges are most acute," the report said.

Hizbullah has also coopted the Lebanese Army and blocked operations by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, the report said. The Iranian proxy has also stored much of its weapons in villages and cities around Lebanon in an effort to foil Israeli air strikes.
The report said Hizbullah has acquired long-range missiles, dispersed throughout Lebanon and Syria. The Israeli assessment of Hizbullah's missile and rocket arsenal was between 50,000 and 60,000, including Grad, Fajr, M-600, Scud D and the P-800 Yakhont cruise missile.

"Advances in Israel's air-to-ground support capabilities will be necessary to avoid a repeat of the 2006 Lebanon War, when it was expected that Israeli airpower would overwhelm Hizbullah's fighting ability and IDF ground troops would rapidly advance northward, pushing Hizbullah's short-range rocket launchers out of range of Israel," the report said.

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UAE takes larger role in manufacturing Boeing components

GeoStrategy direct w/e 27-Nov-13

The United Arab Emirates has been awarded an expanded role with a U.S. defense major.
The UAE'S premier aerospace and defense contractor has been given increased responsibility for producing components for commercial aircraft for Boeing. On Nov. 18, the UAE's Mubadala Development Co. signed what was termed a strategic agreement with Boeing valued at up to $2.5 billion.
"Today's agreement further strengthens our relationship with Boeing, and provides an important platform as we continue to develop our role as a significant supplier to Boeing of composite aerostructures, and develop Strata into a major Tier 1 industry supplier," Mubadala Aerospace executive director Homaid Al Shemmari said.

Executives said Mubadala, already a Tier 1 supplier, would produce advanced composites and machined metals for such aircraft as the 787 and 777X. Mubadala was also assigned development of pre-preg and carbon fiber manufacturing capabilities in Abu Dhabi.
"This will support the ongoing development of the aerostructures industry and create raw-materials capabilities in the United Arab Emirates," Boeing said.

Mubadala has been operating a subsidiary, Strata Manufacturing, to produce components for Boeing. Executives said Strata was being prepared to supply the vertical fin for the 787 Dreamliner.
"Boeing is pleased to expand our relationship with Mubadala, a company that is committed to creating globally competitive and strategic aerospace capabilities in the UAE," Boeing Commercial Airplanes president Ray Conner said.

Mubadala has led the UAE defense industry. In 2009, Mubadala signed a strategic framework agreement with Boeing for composites manufacturing and manpower development, and three years later Strata was assigned to produce vertical fin ribs. Airbus, another leading supplier to UAE airlines, has also pledged to purchase billions of dollars in components from Strata.

"It's a really important commitment from Airbus and Boeing to grow Strata, and it's also a reinforcement of the kind of credibility they've appreciated in terms of cost, quality and timely delivery out of Al Ain," Strata chief executive officer Bader Al Olama said.

Israel and the EU agree on Horizon 2020 compromise

Israel Chris Emb Jeru. 27-Nov-13
Diplomats from Israel and the EU came to an arrangement late Tuesday which will allow the Jewish State to participate in the EU’s prestigious, €80 billion Horizon 2020 R&D program. The diplomats agreed that on documents relating to projects that Israel is involved with, the EU would state that it does not recognize the legitimacy of West Bank settlements, while Israel will write in an appendix that it does not accept this. Various legal checks and balances have also been agreed to which will prevent monies from Horizon 2020 projects to be funneled to Israeli settlements in the West Bank, on the Golan Heights or in the eastern neighborhoods of Jerusalem. “It is good for both of us that this compromise proposal was reached, and we are happy this is behind us and common sense prevailed,” one Israeli official said.

“In light of the global world we live in and the quality of Israeli researchers, it is very important to develop and maintain our relationship with the academic, scientific and research community in the world,” added Manuel Trajtenberg, chairman of the Planning and Budgeting Committee of the Council for Higher Education in Israel.

Coalition Deal: Merkel Reaches Agreement on Next Government

Spiegel 27-Nov-13
Weeks of talks ended early Wednesday morning with a contract between Angela Merkel's conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats to form Germany's next government. The deal still faces a difficult vote by all SPD members in December.

After five weeks of talks and 17-hour, all night negotiations, the parties seeking to form the next German government reached an agreement early Wednesday, with Angela Merkel poised to begin a third term as chancellor. Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and center-left Social Democrats (SPD) agreed on the language of a contract stipulating the policies they would pursue over the next four years. The heads of all three parties signed the 185-page agreement Wednesday morning.

The deal won't be completed until it is put before a vote of the roughly 470,000 members of the SPD on Dec. 6. The outcome of that vote is uncertain, but the Social Democrats have won important concessions from the conservatives that could make it easier for party boss Sigmar Gabriel to sell it to the party base.
"It was a wonderful result," said a jubilant Peter Altmaier, a member of the CDU and Germany's current environment minister. "The CDU's fingerprints are all over this deal," said CDU General Secretary Hermann Gröhe. "This an achievement we can present to our members with great conviction," said Thomas Oppermann, the head of the SPD's parliamentary group.
Merkel's conservatives and the SPD, generally arch political rivals, governed together twice before in what is known as a grand coalition, most recently between 2005-2009, but this time a number of contentious issues meant difficult negotiations right up to the very end.

Support Wanes for Grand Coalition

Although Merkel emerged as the clear winner in the Sept. 22 election, her previous junior partner, the Free Democrats, failed to gain enough seats to remain in parliament, which forced the chancellor to seek a new coalition. She initially spoke with both the Green Party and the Social Democrats but quickly expressed a preference for the latter. Initially, 66 percent of Germany supported a grand coalition government, but after weeks of protracted negotiations between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, that figure has since fallen to 55 percent, with a full 43 percent preferring new elections.

The most divisive issue was that of introducing a statutory minimum wage in Germany, where wages are generally set by various industries. Many Christian Democrats had opposed establishing a minimum wage, but in the end, a compromise was found through a delay in implementing the deal. Under the agreement, a blanket statutory minimum wage of €8.50 per hour will be introduced across the country. However, the deal does include some exceptions as well as transitional periods, though any exceptions would then be lifted as of January 2017.

The minimum wage compromise could prove extremely helpful to Gabriel in convincing SPD members to back the new government. The last grand coalition left a bitter aftertaste for many SPD members, who felt the conservatives always had the upper hand. The party also lost voters during the 2009 election as a result. But the minimum wage deal is expected to send a strong message to the party base. It will also be popular with some voters in states that were formerly part of East Germany because it will eliminate legally permissible lower wages in some areas there. But it's a bitter pill to swallow for conservatives, who believe it eliminates one of the few competitive advantages enjoyed in some places in the east.

No New Taxes or Debt
Both sides seem to be happy with their deal on pensions, though. The Christian Democrats had wanted an increase in pensions for mothers who had worked part time or taken time off after giving birth to children and risked much lower pensions and old-age poverty as a result. Under the deal, the new pension benefit would apply to "all mothers or fathers" who raised children born before 1992.
Meanwhile, the SPD succeeded in getting the Christian Democrats to agree to allow Germans who have worked for 45 years and paid into the state pension system to retire at the age of 63 instead of the legal retirement age of 67, without any penalty, starting on July 1, 2014. In addition, a special pension is planned for low-wage workers of up to €850 per month starting in 2017. A number of other changes to the pensions have also been agreed, but the financing of what is certain to be billions of euros in additional costs remains an open question.

Despite the extra costs, the grand coalition government says it will not raise taxes. And beginning in 2015, it also claims it will not create new government debts.
The parties also agreed to expand the country's use of renewable energies, with a goal of a 55 to 60 percent share of all energy coming from clean sources by 2030. The conservatives had pled for 50 to 55 percent, whereas the Social Democrats had wanted 75 percent. Government investments in new wind parks as well as conventional power plants will be based on that target.
Deliberately Vague Wording

All sides also agreed to review the possibility of levying an annual toll charge for foreign drivers who use German autobahns -- a highly controversial provision that had been one of the CSU's key demands. The language has been left deliberately muddled in the contract and it is uncertain whether it will ultimately be implemented.

In another important concession, the conservatives have agreed to the Social Democrats' demand that children born in Germany to immigrant parents be permitted to have dual citizenship. Under current German law, these children, largely of Turkish descent, are forced to choose one when they turn 23. The SPD failed, however, to push through the right to dual citizenship for other groups.
On another hot-button issue, that of same-sex marriage, neither party prevailed over the other. They agreed merely to "swiftly" implement a recent ruling by the country's Constitutional Court that allows the partner of a gay parent who has adopted to also adopt that child. It was the first in a series of rulings in Germany many believe will ultimately lead to equal marriage rights for both heterosexual and same-sex couples. But the contract didn't go further, stating merely, "We will work towards ending existing discrimination against same-sex life partnerships and people on the basis of their sexual orientation in all areas of society."

SPD Vote Begins Dec. 6
In terms of the structure of the new government, the Social Democrats are expected to receive six cabinet posts, Merkel's CDU will get six minister posts and the CSU three.
The next step comes on Dec. 6, when members of the SPD party base are to vote on the coalition contract. Results are expected by Dec. 14. If everything goes according to plan, Merkel could then be elected as the next chancellor on Dec. 17. If the SPD rejects the contract, however, Merkel may be forced to negotiate a government with the Greens

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